In the electrifying realm of cryptocurrency, Moonshots represent those heart-pounding moments when Bitcoin (BTCUSDT) surges rapidly, capturing the attention of traders and investors alike. But how significant are these price spikes, and do they propel Bitcoin to its All-Time Highs (ATHs)? In this data-driven exploration, we analyze eight years of hourly BTCUSDT data (mid-2017 to mid-2025) to dissect Moonshots—defined as price increases ≥ 5% within 12 hours, with lows not dropping more than 3%—and their role in Bitcoin’s historic peaks. We’ll also contrast Moonshots with their opposite, Drips, and explore seasonal patterns, connecting these findings to Bitcoin’s storied past to offer insights for enthusiasts. Dive in with us!

What Are Moonshots, and Why Do They Matter?

A Moonshot in our analysis is a rapid price increase of at least 5% within a 12-hour window, with minimal pullbacks (lows not falling below 3% from the starting price). We opted for this 5% threshold over a stricter 10% because it captures meaningful surges even in calmer market periods, such as 2023-2025, where a 10% threshold yielded too few events (e.g., only 2 Moonshots in 2024). Across 2017-2025, we identified 634 Moonshots, averaging ~79 per year or ~6-7 per month.

However, the frequency of Moonshots has steadily declined, reflecting Bitcoin’s evolution into a more mature asset:

The peak years were 2018 (126 Moonshots) and 2021 (130 Moonshots), coinciding with Bitcoin’s Bull Runs. By 2023-2025, the count dropped to 36-42 per year (with only 13 in the first half of 2025), as Bitcoin’s market grew larger and less volatile due to institutional adoption and increased liquidity. This trend suggests Moonshots are becoming rarer, making them critical events for traders to monitor. Interestingly, Moonshot frequency may tie into seasonal patterns in Bitcoin’s price. For a deeper look at how Bitcoin’s price trends vary by month, check out Unveiling Bitcoin’s Seasonal Patterns: Predictable Price Trends from 2018 to 2024, which explores whether certain months are more prone to surges like Moonshots.

Bitcoin’s history provides context for these patterns:

• 2017-2018: The ICO boom and retail FOMO drove Bitcoin to ~$20,000 in December 2017, followed by a Bear Market in 2018 with frequent Moonshots amid high volatility.
• 2020-2021: The third Bitcoin Halving (May 2020) and institutional investments (e.g., MicroStrategy, Tesla) sparked a Bull Run, pushing BTC to ~$69,000 in November 2021.
• 2023-2025: Spot Bitcoin ETF approvals (January 2024) and the fourth Halving (April 2024) fueled optimism, but lower Moonshot counts reflect a stabilizing market.

Figure 1: Number and mean size of Moonshots per year (2017-2025), showing a clear decline in frequency as Bitcoin matures.

How Do Moonshots Start? Insights from RSI, MACD, and Volume

To uncover what sparks a Moonshot, we analyzed technical indicators at the start of each event (the start_time when the price begins its ascent):

• RSI (14-period): Mean of 46.48 (median 45.44), suggesting Moonshots often begin in neutral momentum territory, far from overbought (>70) or oversold (<30) zones.
• MACD (12,26,9): Mean MACD Histogram of -20.64 (median -5.33) indicates Moonshots frequently start during a trend shift from bearish to bullish, before a strong uptrend takes hold.
• Volume: Mean trading volume of 4,220.54 (with spikes up to 58,703.57) reveals that some Moonshots are driven by sudden buying surges, often tied to news or market sentiment.

Figure 2: Distribution of RSI at Moonshot start, showing a wide spread with no consistent overbought signal.

These patterns resonate with Bitcoin’s volatile history. In 2017, Moonshots often followed exchange listings or regulatory news, while 2021 surges were tied to corporate BTC adoption announcements.

The Peak of Moonshots: When Prices Soar

At the peak of a Moonshot (the highest high within the 12-hour window), market dynamics intensify:

• RSI: Climbs to a mean of 66.78 (median 68.29), nearing or entering overbought territory (>70), reflecting strong buying pressure.
• MACD: Positive MACD Histogram (mean 101.10, median 59.72) confirms a robust bullish trend at the peak.
• Volume: Surges to a mean of 7,142.47 (max 80,041.75), indicating heavy trading activity as prices reach their zenith.

Compared to the start, the elevated RSI and Volume at the peak highlight the market’s frenzy, reminiscent of Bitcoin’s parabolic runs in 2017 and 2021.

Price Behavior After the Peak: Surge or Slump?

What happens after a Moonshot hits its peak? We analyzed the percentage price change (from the peak high_price to the close price after 6-72 hours):

• Trend: Prices typically dip slightly post-peak (mean -0.92% to -1.61%), suggesting a short-term correction after intense rallies.
• Volatility: Standard deviation increases from 2.75% at 6 hours to 7.68% at 72 hours, reflecting growing uncertainty.
• Outliers: Some Moonshots lead to further gains (up to 33.32% in 48 hours), while others experience sharp drops (down to -29.37%).

Figure 3: Boxplot of price changes after Moonshot peak, illustrating rising volatility and outliers over time.

This post-peak dip contrasts with Bitcoin’s Drips—rapid price drops of ≥ 5% in 12 hours—which often signal buying opportunities after corrections. For a detailed guide on navigating Drips, see Understanding Bitcoin Price Drips and How to Handle Them.

Moonshots and All-Time Highs: A Powerful Link

Do Moonshots drive Bitcoin to All-Time Highs (ATHs)? An ATH occurs when the high price surpasses all previous highs. Our findings:

• Total ATHs: 379 ATHs from 2017-2025.
• ATHs in Moonshots: 178 (46.97%) occurred within a Moonshot’s 12-hour window.
• Characteristics of Moonshots with ATHs:
  • Mean Moonshot size: 7.31% (slightly larger than the overall 6.80% average).
  • Mean RSI at ATH: 74.70 (overbought territory).
  • Mean Volume at ATH: 3,920.78 (lower than peak Moonshot volume but still significant).

Figure 4: BTCUSDT high price with ATHs (red) and ATHs in Moonshots (green), clustering in Bull Markets like 2017 and 2021.

Nearly half of ATHs occurring during Moonshots highlights their role in pushing Bitcoin to new frontiers. Historical events amplify this connection:

• December 2017: Bitcoin’s ~$20,000 ATH coincided with Moonshots driven by retail FOMO and ICO mania.
• November 2021: The ~$69,000 ATH followed Moonshots fueled by ETF speculation and institutional buying.
• 2024-2025: Spot Bitcoin ETF approvals (January 2024) and the fourth Halving (April 2024) likely triggered Moonshots that led to new ATHs.

Takeaways for Crypto Enthusiasts

• Spotting Moonshots: Moonshots often start with RSI ~45-50, offering potential entry points for traders using RSI or MACD to catch early momentum. Look for Volume spikes as confirmation.
• Post-Peak Caution: The average -1-2% dip in 6-24 hours suggests short-term corrections. Consider stop-losses or wait for confirmation before chasing peaks.
• ATHs and Moonshots: With 46.97% of ATHs in Moonshots, these surges are key for catching historic highs, but high RSI (74.70) signals potential reversals.
• Market Context: Moonshots and ATHs thrive in Bull Markets (2017, 2021). Monitor macro events like the next Halving (2028) or regulatory developments for future opportunities.
• Seasonal Trends: Moonshot frequency may align with Bitcoin’s seasonal patterns, as explored in Unveiling Bitcoin’s Seasonal Patterns: Predictable Price Trends from 2018 to 2024.

Conclusion: Moonshots Fuel Bitcoin’s Rise

Our analysis of 634 Moonshots from 2017-2025 reveals their pivotal role in driving Bitcoin’s price surges and creating nearly half of its 379 ATHs. From the 2017 retail frenzy to the 2021 institutional boom and the 2024 ETF-driven rally, Moonshots have defined Bitcoin’s journey. As Moonshots become rarer in a maturing market, their significance grows for traders and enthusiasts alike. Will Moonshots continue to propel Bitcoin to new ATHs in the next Bull Run? Share your thoughts in the comments below, and subscribe for more data-driven crypto insights!

This is not financial advice!

This analysis have more detailed you can view it with code in our github project.